Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,890
2 New Jersey 19,955
3 Louisiana 16,828
4 Arizona 16,827
5 Rhode Island 16,341
6 Massachusetts 16,191
7 District of Columbia 15,369
8 Connecticut 13,263
9 Delaware 13,148
10 Florida 12,561
11 Illinois 12,259
12 Mississippi 12,192
13 Maryland 12,191
14 Iowa 11,223
15 South Carolina 11,002
16 Nebraska 10,966
17 Alabama 10,929
18 Georgia 10,208
19 Arkansas 9,399
20 Utah 9,217
21 Texas 9,132
22 Nevada 9,007
23 Tennessee 8,947
24 South Dakota 8,476
25 California 8,293
26 Virginia 8,279
27 North Carolina 8,192
28 Indiana 7,856
29 Pennsylvania 7,795
30 Michigan 7,703
31 Minnesota 7,503
32 New Mexico 7,167
33 Wisconsin 6,852
34 Kansas 6,623
35 Colorado 6,413
36 Idaho 6,139
37 North Dakota 5,692
38 Ohio 5,611
39 Washington 5,539
40 Oklahoma 5,113
41 Missouri 4,753
42 New Hampshire 4,452
43 Kentucky 4,423
44 Wyoming 3,217
45 Puerto Rico 3,022
46 Oregon 2,885
47 Maine 2,632
48 Alaska 2,422
49 West Virginia 2,368
50 Vermont 2,076
51 Montana 1,644
52 Hawaii 848

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 575
2 Arizona 444
3 Louisiana 439
4 South Carolina 385
5 Georgia 304
6 Mississippi 301
7 Alabama 300
8 Nevada 291
9 Texas 284
10 Idaho 256
11 Arkansas 255
12 Tennessee 223
13 Iowa 221
14 California 203
15 North Carolina 199
16 Utah 199
17 Oklahoma 146
18 Wisconsin 145
19 Kansas 144
20 Minnesota 125
21 New Mexico 123
22 Ohio 121
23 North Dakota 115
24 Alaska 114
25 Virginia 104
26 Indiana 102
27 Missouri 101
28 Nebraska 95
29 Delaware 93
30 Maryland 91
31 Montana 91
32 Kentucky 88
33 Illinois 83
34 Puerto Rico 82
35 District of Columbia 79
36 Washington 79
37 Oregon 77
38 West Virginia 77
39 Colorado 76
40 South Dakota 61
41 Michigan 56
42 Pennsylvania 56
43 Wyoming 50
44 New Jersey 38
45 New York 37
46 Massachusetts 33
47 Rhode Island 21
48 Hawaii 20
49 New Hampshire 19
50 Maine 13
51 Vermont 12
52 Connecticut 7

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,747
2 New York 1,646
3 Connecticut 1,219
4 Massachusetts 1,207
5 Rhode Island 921
6 District of Columbia 804
7 Louisiana 734
8 Michigan 632
9 Illinois 583
10 Maryland 548
11 Pennsylvania 542
12 Delaware 530
13 Mississippi 419
14 Indiana 409
15 Arizona 307
16 Colorado 299
17 New Hampshire 287
18 Georgia 277
19 Minnesota 273
20 Ohio 261
21 New Mexico 259
22 Iowa 238
23 Virginia 230
24 Alabama 228
25 Florida 197
26 Nevada 192
27 Washington 188
28 South Carolina 186
29 Missouri 181
30 California 178
31 Nebraska 153
32 Kentucky 145
33 North Carolina 145
34 Wisconsin 142
35 South Dakota 123
36 North Dakota 119
37 Texas 111
38 Tennessee 107
39 Arkansas 106
40 Oklahoma 106
41 Kansas 102
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 84
44 Utah 67
45 Idaho 57
46 Oregon 56
47 West Virginia 53
48 Puerto Rico 52
49 Wyoming 36
50 Montana 27
51 Alaska 20
52 Hawaii 13

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 8
2 Mississippi 5
3 Louisiana 4
4 Alabama 3
5 Florida 3
6 South Carolina 3
7 South Dakota 3
8 Georgia 2
9 Massachusetts 2
10 Nevada 2
11 New Jersey 2
12 Texas 2
13 Arkansas 1
14 California 1
15 Colorado 1
16 Illinois 1
17 Indiana 1
18 Iowa 1
19 Maryland 1
20 Michigan 1
21 Montana 1
22 New Mexico 1
23 North Carolina 1
24 Ohio 1
25 Oklahoma 1
26 Pennsylvania 1
27 Tennessee 1
28 Utah 1
29 Virginia 1
30 Washington 1
31 Alaska 0
32 Connecticut 0
33 Delaware 0
34 District of Columbia 0
35 Hawaii 0
36 Idaho 0
37 Kansas 0
38 Kentucky 0
39 Maine 0
40 Minnesota 0
41 Missouri 0
42 Nebraska 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 New York 0
45 North Dakota 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 Rhode Island 0
49 Vermont 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 133,818 1 99
Lake Tennessee 99,202 2 99
Lee Arkansas 93,372 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 90,333 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 88,583 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 20,944 135 95
Richland South Carolina 11,726 443 85
Orange California 7,693 792 74
York South Carolina 6,709 930 70
Pierce Washington 3,949 1505 52

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,282 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 236 668 78
Davidson Tennessee 206 734 76
Orange California 133 991 68
Pierce Washington 125 1018 67
York South Carolina 43 1665 47

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons